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Wednesday, 14th February, 2024

KOBWA PARTICIPATES IN THE 28th SADC REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum Delegates (courtesy of SADC Secretariat)

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Secretariat, through its Climate Services Centre (CSC) convened the 28th Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-28) in Maputo, Mozambique between 29 - 31 January 2024. The Komati Basin Water Authority (KOBWA) was represented by the System Analyst, Mr. Sidney Dhlamini. The aim of the conference was to review the impacts of the October-November and December (OND) 2023 rainfall season's predictions, issue the seasonal (overlapping three-monthly timescales) outlook for February-March-April (FMA), March-April-May (MAM) and April-May-June (AMJ) 2024 and to advance the establishment of Regional Sectoral User Interface Products (RSUIPs). The conference was officially opened by H.E Mateus Magala, the Minister of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Mozambique.

The seasonal forecast (each covering a period of 3 months) presented at the forum indicates that most of the Komati Basin is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the period from February 2024 to May 2024 (FMA & MAM). During the period from April 2024 to June 2024 (AMJ), normal to above-normal rainfall is expected for the western half of the catchment and normal to below-normal rainfall is predicted for the eastern half of the catchment.

Summary of the regional seasonal forecast The bulk of the northern half of the SADC region and the southeastern parts are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period from February to June 2024. This excludes central parts of the region and south-western parts where normal to below-normal and below-normal rainfall is expected. Above normal rainfall is expected over the north-eastern parts of the region during the March to May (MAM) 2024 period.

Normal to below-normal rainfall is expected during the April to June (AMJ) 2024 rainfall season over the north-western and south-eastern parts of the region, while central parts of the region are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Below normal rainfall conditions are expected to persist over the western regions of the Southern African region, mostly in Botswana, Namibia, southern Angola, and south-western South Africa throughout the forecast period.